Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Day 86


I thought that everybody understood this but apparently not, so I'm going to say it again and I going to say it slowly so that everyone can understand.

The novel coronavirus is called "novel" not because it's a book or something but because it's new and there's not been a virus quite like it before.  It's highly contagious, and there is currently no human immunity to it and no vaccine.  Just today, a new treatment drug has been announced, but all it does is reduce the number of deaths for the worst-hit victims by about a third - those who contract the disease still suffer and suffer mightily from it. It's not a cure, its just that you're now slightly less likely to die from it than before.  

Because it's novel and so particularly deadly, doctors, scientists and the rest of the medical community were initially concerned that the sheer number of patients affected would overrun the number of hospital beds available and in particular the ventilators needed to keep some patients alive.  Therefore, they encouraged all Americans to stay at home and "shelter in place" and avoid all social contact to keep the transmission of the virus down.  If everyone in America stayed home - even the police, the food distribution network, doctors, nurses, etc., everyone - so that there was no (zero) social contact, the virus wouldn't be able to transmit and would have died out pretty quickly.  But that would have been impossible and people would have starved, so as a compromise it was urged that all "non-essential" workers stay in quarantine.  That way, few enough people would be impacted such that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed and have to turn dying people away.  There'd still be infections, just fewer.  

This was "flattening the curve," keeping the number of new cases per day down to a minimum so that the care of the sick was manageable.  A lot of people who should have sheltered didn't, but still, all in all, it was a success.  A lot of people stayed home and most states had strict prohibitions against public gatherings, and the number of people in hospitals generally was below the thresholds, although there were still a few scary moments.  At one point, the city of Montgomery, Alabama had no more ICU beds left and had to send patients to Birmingham for treatment.  It also helped that the manufacturing sector stepped up and began producing additional ventilators to help meet the demand.  This was abetted by a presidential order requiring additional ventilator production, but that benefit was probably offset by a feckless lack of leadership that left each state bidding against the others for the available ventilators instead of a federally run distribution system.

As the curve flattened and the rate of new infections each day stopped rising, it was time to begin a controlled reopening of the economy.  Since the virus was still very much present and active, it was essential that caution be maintained.  People are urged to wear face masks when out in public, not to protect themselves from the virus, but to protect others from any virus they may be carrying.  If everyone wore a mask in public, the amount of transmission would be greatly reduced.  People were also encouraged to maintain at least a six-feet distance from one another and to avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors.  And wash your hands regularly.

But it seems some people are mistaking the success of flattening the curve with eradication of the virus, or at least the end of the first wave of infection.  These people  are objecting to wearing masks in public, are willfully, even defiantly meeting in public, and I'm told (although this might be just an internet hoax it sounds so unreal), the so-called "president" is thinking about holding a large indoor rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, one of the current covid hot spots.  People cheering, chanting, and yelling out loud are more likely to spread the virus,  even more than equally-spaced individuals sitting quietly, so this seems like a perfect opportunity for the virus to spread.  It's hard not to feel they deserve whatever they get.

We are still in the middle of a massive, uncontrolled and deadly pandemic.  It hasn't gone away and it's no safer now than it was before.  If we're not cautious and continue to maintain "social distancing," we might be right back where we were in March and have to start another round of involuntary shelter in place orders.

But Americans, it seems, are willfully ignorant, and are instead opting to allow roughly, oh let's say 1,000, of their fellow countrymen die each day until a vaccine is finally available about a year from now.

You're doing a helluva job, Brownies.

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