Thanks for stopping by here again. I've been meaning to talk to you (yes, you) about the future.

There are two types of people (not to sound too dualistic) - those who assume that I am addressing them, and those who assume I'm addressing others. I'm not addressing those people. I'm talking to you.

Anyway, the time has come to talk about the future. According to a recent article in the geologic press, it is possible to reasonably predict earth's future at time scales ranging from 1,000 to one million years. For example, studies have shown the average recurrence interval of major earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault to be about one every 150-200 years, so we can predict five to seven such events in the next thousand years, with total fault movement of almost 100 feet. Odds are also strong for another repeat of the 1811-1812 New Madrid quake as well within the next 1,000 years, as well.

See? Predicting the future is easy. The Mississippi is already overdue for a change of course. In 1,000 years, the river will almost certainly have changed course one way or another, and will certainly have abandoned its current delta. There is a significant statistical probability of a major meteor impact in the next 1,000 years causing significant damage or casualties and excavating a crater 300 feet or more in diameter.

Even assuming one or more global nuclear wars, many present-day human settlements should still exist 1,000 years from now, and very likely some cultural institutions and political entities, too. The Pyramids and Mount Rushmore should still be preserved. However, large steel-frame structures, such as the Eiffel Tower, Golden Gate Bridge and Empire State Building, could be expected to survive 1,000 years only with the most meticulous maintenance (rust never sleeps). However, the current build up of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases should be over in a 1,000 years, if for no other reason than we will have run out of fossil fuels by then, or have switched to alternate fuels, or simply from a collapse of technology as a result of climate change. It's a self-limiting phenomena when viewed at the geologic time frame. There's really no need to factor in rapid catastrophes like global warming when predicting the future at large time scales.

But in 10,000 years, things get more interesting. The San Andreas Fault will have moved almost 1,000 feet and have experienced 50-70 magnitude 8 earthquakes, so you can pretty much kiss off LA and San Francisco. Niagara Falls will have retreated all the way up to Grand Island, and will briefly form a triple falls. And there's a very good chance of at least one meteor impact excavating a crater a half-mile or so in diameter, causing regional destruction over hundreds of miles due to the blast impact, tsunamis and ejecta.

Most existing reservoirs will have filled in by 10,000 years from now, or their dams collapsed, catastrophically for Beijing when the Three Gorges Dam goes. With its hollow construction, we can safely assume that the Statue of Liberty, shown half buried on the seashore at the climax of Planet of the Apes, would not survive any lengthy period of natural battering. Although large-scale human structures like major road cuts might still be preserved, 10,000 years is beyond the human cultural horizon. It is entirely possible that no single word in any present-day language will have survived in recognizable form.

In 100,000 years, the San Andreas will have moved enough to bring the coastal hills nearly to the Golden Gate, but not enough to close it. San Francisco Bay may well be dry, however, and the Golden Gate once again reduced to a river valley. Niagara Falls will have retreated all the way to Lake Erie, which will drain rapidly, though probably not catastrophically. There will have been dozens of catastrophic meteor impacts, however.

We have no continuous cultural tradition long-lasting enough to even enable a rough guess about human society 100,000 years from now. However, 100,000 years is enough time that, even if civilization collapses and humans regress back to Paleolithic technology, they would have time to literally "re-invent the wheel" and return to our present level. The previous depletion of natural resources might make a full recovery harder, but the scarcity of fossil fuels might spare future generations the need to have to wean themselves from non-renewable energy sources.

One million years from now, the world will be very different. In 1,000,000 years, the San Andreas will have suffered over 7,000 magnitude 8 earthquakes, and the Golden Gate will be blocked by the hills of present San Mateo County. Many present river valleys may still exist, but many others will have been diverted by giant landslides, glaciation or crustal movement. There will have been hundreds of major meteor impacts, and at least one with global effects. No currently-identified constellations will be recognizable in the sky.

If humanity does not experience any catastrophic changes in the next million years, we simply have no idea how the perspectives of people with such a long history would differ from our own. If human civilization experiences a protracted collapse into several geographically isolated gene pools, it is possible that geographically isolated segments of the human race may evolve into separate distinct species. And although a great many species will have become extinct, new ones will have naturally evolved.

So that's the future (not that you'll be around for it). But back in the here and now, let's give credit where it's due - most of this was predicted by Dr. Steven Ian Dutch of the University of Wisconsin - Green Bay, and published in the journal, Geosphere (May, 2006).