Ben Bova

Impermanence is swift.  One year ago today, science fiction writer and editor Ben Bova died in Naples, Florida from the covids.  On this day in 2013, Dick Dodd, drummer and vocalist for The Standells on their 1966 hit Dirty Water, died of cancer at age 68.  On this day is 2001, George Harrison died of lung cancer in Los Angeles at age 58.  On this day is 1996, singer and ukulele player Tiny Tim died on stage from a heart attack while playing his hit Tiptoe Through the Tulips. 

Today is the day for right action, for with it there is no karma and no retribution.

Two cases of the Omicron variant have been detected in Ontario, Canada, the first cases on the North American continent.  A Portuguese soccer team came down with 13 cases.  Japan, Israel, and Morocco have closed their borders to all foreign travelers.

Evidence suggests that the Omicron variant is at least as transmissible as Delta, and more than the original virus.  But is it more deadly?  At the NY Times, journalist David Leonhardt reports that Barry Schoub, a South African virologist, said that Omicron cases have tended to be “mild to moderate.” Schoub added, “That’s a good sign. But let me stress it is early days.”  Dr. Rudo Mathivha, the head of the intensive care unit at a hospital in Soweto, South Africa, said that severe cases have been concentrated among people who were not fully vaccinated.  Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, a top health official in Israel, emphasized yesterday that when vaccinated people were infected, they became only slightly ill.  And as the Times’s Carl Zimmer reported, “For now, there’s no evidence that Omicron causes more severe disease than previous variants.”

So the burning question on at least my mind is: will the Omicron variant interfere with next year's planned Big Ears music festival?  My crystal ball suggests, somewhat optimistically, that the answer is "no."  Big Ears is planned for March 24-27, some four months from now.  Historically, waves of covid infections have tended to increase for two-month periods, and then decrease over another two months. If the Omicron wave hits us now, and if it shares the same temporal pattern as the previous variants, cases will climb in number during December and January, and then start to recede in February and March.  In a perfect world, or at least the best imperfect world we can expect, when the next Big Ears rolls around, we could very well be at the low point of the trough between the Omicron peak and whatever it is that follows next.

But to be clear, absent new evidence, the rational assumption is that the covids are likely to remain overwhelmingly mild among the vaccinated (unless their health is already precarious). For most vaccinated people, the covids probably present less risk than some everyday activities.  Be careful  and be sure to look both ways before crossing any busy streets out there.