Day 60

Has there ever been a less auspicious start to a Memorial Day weekend?  I can't remember one.  After two months or so of sheltering in place, the joy of three days off doesn't quite seem like the magic it used to be.

To make matters worse, Atlanta is afflicted today with a visit by so-called vice-president Mike Pence, here to lavish praise on Governor Brian Kemp for the rash re-opening of the economy, and on Senator Kelly Loeffler for, I don't know, grifting?

As everyone knows, Kemp began reopening oddly specific parts of the economy - bowling alleys, massage parlors, tattoo studios, and barber shops - back last April before most people thought it was safe to reopen.  Even Trump said it was "too soon" in one of his rambling, semi-coherent press conferences.  But as many right-wing pundits and Trump supporters have noted, the "second wave" of infections and deaths didn't come, and the folks who were already convinced it was all one big hoax to begin with looked at the Georgia experience as proof of their convictions.  

Those who worried about the health of the community more the the wealth of the aristocrats pointed out that it takes weeks for symptoms to appear after exposure, so the feared "second wave" might still be out there somewhere beyond the horizon but heading our way.  Also, many Georgians ignored Kemp's advise and continued to shelter in place through May, further delaying arrival of the second wave. In other words, keep the champagne on ice.

I hope I'm wrong about this, but there are signs that the second wave is starting to appear in Georgia just now.  The NY Times has been keeping detailed records of new reported covid cases in each state, as well as covid-related deaths.  The Time's totals are higher than those of some other sources because they include both confirmed infections (meaning a laboratory test detected the presence of the coronavirus) and probable infections (meaning the symptoms were consistent with covid in the eyes of the medical professionals treating the case, but a laboratory test wasn't performed).   

Here are the results for Georgia through yesterday.

On Wednesday, May 20, we suffered the most new cases (948) since May 1, and although the number was slightly lower yesterday (May 21), it was still quite a bit higher than the rest of the previous week.   Sadly - tragically - we also had the most deaths (77) yesterday that since the peak back on April 20.  Look at the last bar in the graph above to see how much higher yesterday's death total was than the rest of the month.

The spikes in the data could just be statistical anomalies or the result of some hospitals turning in their data for several days in one lump submittal, but since it's not clear that it isn't in fact the rise of the second wave, we probably shouldn't ease any more restrictions at this point.  Two days of dismaying data do not a trend make, nor does it mean we're definitely in the second wave now.  But it's not inconsistent with a second wave either and if it were occurring, this is exactly what it would look like.

But meanwhile, Pence and Kemp are congratulating each other on Georgia's declining trends and on the "successful" reopening of the economy, and by the time little Mike Pence is back in his airplane and flying out of state, the second wave may already be crashing down on us survivors.