Blue Nation

According to today's Frank Rich column, we are being told that Obama's poll numbers are approaching free fall. Shouting matches are erupting at town hall meetings to discuss health-care changes, and Beltway pundits claim that if the President fails to deliver on health care, he’s toast. But Rich points out that "many of the bloviators who spot a fatal swoon in the Obama presidency are the same doomsayers who in August 2008 were predicting his Election Day defeat because he couldn’t 'close the deal' and clear the 50 percent mark in matchups with John McCain.

Meanwhile, according to gallup.com, data from the first six months of 2009 finds only four states showing a sizable Republican advantage in party identification, the same number as in 2008. That compares to 29 states plus the District of Columbia with sizable Democratic advantages, also unchanged from last year. Massachusetts is the most solidly Democratic state in the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are the most Republican states, as they were in 2008.

The map shows each states in which one of the parties enjoys a 10 or more percentage point advantage. States with between a five- and nine-point advantage are considered leaning toward that party, and states with less than a five-point advantage for one of the parties are considered up for grabs. It's interesting to note that in America, the left is associated with the color blue and the right with the color red, while everywhere else in the world, it's completely the opposite.

Most states are currently Democratic in their party orientation, with the greatest number (30, including the District of Columbia) classified as solidly Democratic, with an additional 8 states, including Georgia, leaning Democratic.

The leaves the Republicans as a four-state western party (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Alaska), as relevant to the rest of the nation as Mormonism. Even Montana is up for grabs with a 2% Democratic advantage. For all the Republican's emphasis on the Deep South, only Alabama is leaning Republican, while Mississippi, with only a 1% Republican advantage, is considered up for grabs. Texas amd South Carolina are also up for grabs with 2% Democratic advantages.

Since Obama was inaugurated, not much has changed in the political party landscape at the state level -- the Democratic Party continues to hold a solid advantage in party identification in most states and in the nation as a whole. While the Republican Party is still able to compete in elections if they enjoy greater turnout from their supporters or greater support for its candidates from independent voters, the deck is still clearly stacked in the Democratic Party's favor for now.

According to Frank Rich, the best political news for the President remains the Republicans. It’s a measure of how out of touch G.O.P. leaders like Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are that they keep trying to scare voters by calling Obama a socialist. "If anything," Rich writes, "the most unexpected — and challenging — event that could rock the White House this August would be if the opposition actually woke up."