The Final Knowledge, 24th Day of Autumn, 526 M.E. (Deneb): Dog Days End, the last day of the Dog Days, may have been 24 days ago, but it was only today that it felt like they were finally over. This morning's low was a refreshing 63° F, and the high was only 71. This after weeks of heat domes, hot weather alerts, and heat indices in the high nineties. Somewhere, the great meteorological switch in the sky has been thrown. I know I talk about the weather here a lot but the weather is the overlap in the Venn diagram between climate change and my lived experience.
With the weather so comfortable today, I walked a 9.3-mile Harrison, my first walk in six days.
Tropical Storm Fay is still somewhere out there in the mid-Atlantic, but doesn't seem to be going anywhere and is rapidly losing strength. The area of low pressure a few hundred miles south the Cabo Verde Islands is moving north for some reason (who knows what goes on in the mind of a tropical storm?) and is apparently no threat to North American shores.
Despite "both-sides" press coverage, the reality of climate change, aka global warming, is undisputed science. Yes, there are some scientists who are skeptical of some aspects of the complicated interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans, the land masses, anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, etc., but even the vast majorities of those simply want more research into some specific mechanism and don't reject the whole framework just because, say, the role of biota in buffering ocean acidification isn't fully understood
Unfortunately, it's become part of the gospel of the far right to deny climate change, or at least man's involvement in the process. The Stable Genius has called it a "hoax" and even specifically a "Chinese hoax," while other deep thinkers on the lunatic fringe thinks its only a wild theory dreamed up by Al Gore or Greta Thunberg, and the only reason that liberals believe it is that they're blind followers of Algore and Thunberg like they are of the Stable Genius.
But the theory isn't something new, or even of just the last 30 years. Fifty years ago, back when I was an undergraduate geology major (could it really have been that long ago?), I was taught that the Eocene was the warmest period in Earth's Cenozoic Era, and we know that because geochemical analysis of Eocene sediments indicate the highest Cenozoic levels of atmospheric CO₂. That, and lots of swamp-marsh style fossils near the polar regions of that time and very few diamictites (glacial deposits). Even in the mid-1970s, long before Algore or Greta, freshman-level Geology 101 taught that the Earth is warm when atmospheric CO₂ is high, and cold when CO₂ levels are low.
Last night, I was reading Ursula K. LeGuin's 1969 science-fiction masterpiece, The Left Hand of Darkness. It's set on a cold, distant planet fittingly called "Winter." Most of the planet is covered by ice caps, and humanity exists only in a relatively narrow, equatorial band between the two massive caps. However, at least one character recognizes that "the volcanic activity in N.W. Orgoreyn and the Archipelago has been increasing during the last ten or twenty millennia, and presages the end of the Ice, or at least a recession of it and an interglacial period."
"CO₂ releases by the volcanoes into the atmosphere will in time serve as an insulator, holding in the long-wave heat-energy reflected from the earth, while permitting direct solar heat to enter undiminished. The average world temperature . . . would in the end be raised some thirty degrees, till it attains 72°. I am glad I shall not be present."
That was published in 1969, so LeGuin must have been writing in in 1968 or earlier, and reflecting her understanding of the state of the science in the mid-sixties. It's as concise a description of the greenhouse effect as any, and specifically identifies CO₂ as the driver. Yet, in 2009, I had a conservative work colleague who kept a set of cassette lectures on his desk titled, Water, Not CO₂, Determines Climate. I don't think he ever listened to the tapes. He just kept them on his desk for totemic purposes and to head off any argument or discussion on the topic. I know that I never brought up the topic, because if I did he'd tell me to listen to the tapes and then I'd have to pretend that I did.
Meanwhile, The Guardian reports that the fossil fuel industry secured an estimated $190 billion in tax breaks and subsidies over the next decade after responding to the Stable Genius pre-election request for campaign donations. U.S. taxpayers will have to shoulder the higher bills as the people endure the public-health risks and the effects of climate change associated with the pollution, including but not limited to 451,000 additional deaths from extreme, Dog-Day heat.