Day of the Lamb, 5th of Spring, 526 M.E. (Helios): Welcome to Spring. And with the new season, a welcome return of the Spring avatar, the Earth Mother.
Speaking of Mother Earth, the World Meteorological Organization confirmed that the past three years have been the hottest three-year period on record. Greenhouse gas concentrations are hitting record-breaking levels even while the planet’s carbon sinks, the natural systems that remove CO₂ from the atmosphere, are becoming depleted. The CO₂-induced warming has also been compounded by a recent drop in sulfur pollution that had provided temporary relief.
The extreme heat in recent years was due in part to natural fluctuations such as solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and the El Niño weather pattern. A previous period of accelerated warming was the result of the strong El Niño of 1998. The relative slowdown in warming that followed was incorrectly interpreted as evidence of a pause in global warming. The question now is how much of the current increased temperatures are the result of unforced variability (i.e., natural climate cycles).or forced responses (i.e., anthropogenic climate change).
A recent study excluded the effect of natural factors behind the latest temperatures by applying a noise-reduction method to filter out the estimated effect of nonhuman factors in five major datasets of the Earth’s temperature. The study found that even without taking natural causes into account, global warming accelerated from a steady rate of less than 0.2° C per decade between 1970 and 2015 to about 0.35° per decade over the past 10 years. The rate is the highest since methodical measurements of the Earth’s temperature began in 1880.
If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5° C limit of the Paris agreement within the next five years. One of the datasets, supplied by the EU’s Copernicus service, indicated the world will cross the 1.5° threshold this year if the rate of warming does not slow. Analysis of the other four datasets showed a breach in 2028 or 2029.
Global heating of 1.5-2° C may be enough to trigger near-apocalyptic “tipping points,” with the chances of catastrophe increasing at higher levels of warming. In the short-term, climate change will make heat waves hotter and allow storms to unleash more rain.



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