The Last Counsel, 23rd Day of Childwinter, 526 M.E. (Electra): I have to admit they have me spooked. "Monster winter storm threatens half of U.S., with at least 16 states declaring emergencies," reports The Guardian. "Snow, sleet and freezing temperatures are forecast for the south, midwest and east coast over the weekend."  

"America Readies to Hunker Down Ahead of Weekend Storm," according to the New York Times headline. "More than 160 million people from the Rockies to New England prepared for a combination of snow, ice and bitter cold through early next week. Cancellations mounted amid urgent forecast warnings." A subheading ominously declares, "Storm Poses Big Threats to Power Grids Across U.S."

Even all the way down south here in Georgia, the governor has declared a state of emergency throughout the entire state ahead of the looming winter storm.

Here's the thing, though: the actual forecast doesn't look that bad to me. It's been raining on and off, and I had to cancel my alternating day walk yesterday because of the precipitation. However, yesterday was relatively warm - three degrees above the norm for this time of year - and today is about the same with temperatures in the mid- to low 50s. Subfreezing temperatures aren't forecast to arrive here until Sunday morning, and then be back up above freezing by noon that same day.

The trouble will be those six or so hours on Sunday morning when the temperature is below 32° F and the precipitation probability ranges between 60 and 80%. That will form as ice on the ground and make the roads generally undriveable on Sunday. I'm  not planning on going anywhere that day.

No rain, snow, or sleet is expected after Sunday, and next week the forecast is sunny to partly cloudy. The sun and the highs in the 40s should melt the ice off the streets, but the evenings are forecast to be bitter cold, with lows in the 20s and even teens. The question is whether the days will be warm enough to melt the ice off the pavement before it refreezes in the evening.

My intuitive guess is that it will and although Sunday will be awful and the roads unpassable, we'll be back to more or less normal by Monday and certainly by Tuesday. I've stocked up on enough food to last me well into next week. If the power goes out, I'll be out of luck in this drafty old house and the icy roads. It may be uncomfortable but it won't be life threatening. 

The Stable Genius, one of the dumbest people in the U.S., cited the incoming storm as proof that climate change is a hoax. He posted, “Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain – WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???” I'm going to give him a pass on identifying people who understand climate science as "insurrectionists," not because he might be right but because I'm simply too fucking exhausted to make that argument right now. 

The storm is the result of a  mass of frigid air from the Arctic hitting warmer, moister air in the U.S. The cold Arctic air is usually confined above the Arctic Circle by the polar vortex, a stream of wind circling the northern portion of the globe. When the polar vortex weakens, the freezing Arctic air spills south into the U.S. 

The Arctic is heating up by as much as four times faster than the rest of the planet, with the elevated polar temperatures are altering the polar vortex. Among other things, the loss of sea ice in the Arctic that allowed intrepid sailors to pass through the Northwest Passage last summer is amplifying the heating that leads to polar vortex disruptions.

Also, a single winter storm in one region of one country says very little about long-term, global climate trends. The world is undeniably heating up, and winters in the U.S. are warming at a faster rate than other seasons, resulting in the loss of glaciers and changing seasonal norms.

By attacking climate science, branding environmentalists as "insurrectionists," and incorrectly identifying the incoming storm as evidence that climate change is some sort of hoax, the Stable Genius is misleading his loyal followers. Actions like this, on top of stripping government web sites of scientific findings on climate change, defunding climate research, layoffs at NOAA, the National Hurricane Center, and elsewhere, continued subsidies to the petroleum industry, opening formerly protected land to new oil drilling, and suppression of grants for solar and wind energy projects, not to mention the hostile takeover of Venezuela to control its oil reserves, the Stable Genius is aggressively making the world a worse place in which to live for the short-term economic benefits of a handful of already wealthy backers and petrochemical industrialists.