I Fear No Man . . . But These Things, They Terrify Me

 

An average of 4,203 covid cases per day were reported in Georgia in the last week. Cases have increased by 13 percent from the average two weeks ago. Deaths have increased by 10 percent. Since the beginning of the pandemic, at least 1 in 4 Georgia residents have been infected, a total of 2,699,050 reported cases. At least 1 in 283 residents have died from the coronavirus, a total of 37,640 deaths.

This latest increase in case numbers has me concerned.  Not only is it almost assuredly an undercount due to the increased availability of home testing kits, it doesn't have the "spike" geometry of the previous waves of infections.  Historically, the average number of new covid cases spiked upwards for one or two months, and then rapidly declined over another one or two months. In December 2021, as cases of the omicron variant were starting to spike, I felt comfortable buying tickets for March 2022's Big Ears festival, as the overall pattern indicated that the cases were going to drop again just as rapidly as they rose.

But this latest rise doesn't appear like a spike at all.  It's a slow, gradual increase more reminiscent of a rising tide than a viral spike.  How long will it keep going up? How high will it go? When will the numbers start to decline? Will they ever start to decline?  It's difficult to estimate future activity based on past performance with an increase like this.

Making matters worse, people seem to be "over" with concerns about the covids.  Yesterday in the supermarket, although the case numbers were as high as they've been during the winter 2020 spike, the delta spike, and the omicron spike, I could count the number of other people I saw wearing masks on one hand.  Yes, many of us are vaccinated now and not likely to die or get seriously ill from the current form of the virus, but we can still spread it.  And the virus, if left unchecked, can still possibly mutate to a more deadly form, perhaps one our current vaccines can't protect us from. But we seem to show no interest or will to control its spread.

Meanwhile, kudos to the Senate for finally passing the first major piece of climate change legislation.  It took decades and is arguably decades too late, but it's something.  Something is better than nothing.  

Even as the bill goes over to Congress for them to diddle around with, that large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic is now south of the Cabo Verde islands and is continuing to move westward to west-northwestward across the ocean.  It still has a 40% chance of forming a tropical depression in the next 5 days, and could arrive in North America as Hurricane Danielle.