In Which I Answer My Own Questions

And now we're 272 days into 2021.  There are 93 days left until we're finally done with this year. Today is the day for meditation on inconstancy, during which we can reflect on the desires of the past, present, and future.

Last Saturday, when the great southern State of Georgia was experiencing an average of 4,561 new covid cases per day, I predicted that by today we'd be down to 3,800 cases per day.  According to the New York Times, yesterday we were down to 3,615 cases per day, the lowest number since August 6.

3,615 new cases per day, while 60% lower than the last peak (9,244 cases per day on August 31) is higher than the peak (954 cases per day) of the first, flatten-the-curve wave, or the peak (3,490 cases per day) of the second, siummer-of-2020 wave.

Thee Oh Sees (aka, Oh Sees, OCS, and now touring as "Osees") perform tonight at Variety Playhouse.  I have a ticket to the show, and have been looking forward to it ever since I bought the ticket last July. 

Back on July 1, Georgia was only experiencing 383 new cases per day, but since then, the delta variant, vaccine resistance, and poor public hygiene have caused the case numbers to explode.

But in Georgia today, the covid outbreak is more of a rural problem than an urban problem.  Vaccination rates are higher in Atlanta than in other parts of Georgia, and the counties with the highest per-capita rate of infection are in rural areas far from the city.

True, but the five counties (Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, and Clayton) that make up the Atlanta metropolitan area accounted for 28% of the state's 3,615 cases. The other 72% are spread among the state's other 154 counties.

While the number of new covid cases as of today is still concerning, I'm fully vaccinated and the venue (Variety Playhouse) is requiring all attendees to show proof of vaccination on entering.

A recent CDC report on an outbreak in Massachusetts found vaccinated and unvaccinated people both carried comparable loads of the covid virus. Even fully vaccinated people can still transmit the virus.

Variety Playhouse, while not an outdoor venue, is larger and better ventilated than small clubs like The Earl, and if I can claim my usual spot at the front of the first riser on the right, I shouldn't have other people breathing directly into my face.

Osees play a very energetic form of psych-punk/garage-rock and never fail to have a lively mosh pit at the front of the stage.  The vigorous activity, and cheering by the rest of the audience, leads to a lot of exhalation; together with the close quarters, it's a perfect incubator for the spread of covid.  If even one person enters the venue with the covids, the air inside the Playhouse could quickly fill with the virus.

Osees at Warsaw (Brooklyn), September 25, 2021 (photo by u/anohioanredditer)

I will wear a mask to protect myself.   

Variety Playhouse "strongly encourages" but doesn't require ticket-holders to wear masks.  Wearing a mask among a crowd of unmasked people is at least 50% less effective than if everyone wore masks.

Despite these concerns, music has returned to live venues for over a month now and both nationwide and locally, covid cases have been dropping. There haven't been outbreaks or super-spreader events associated with the shows performed to date. Ergo, going to a live music show with reasonable precautions (vaccination and facemasks) is "safe."  

According to Billboard, the Zac Brown Band cancelled their tour yesterday when frontman Zac Brown revealed a positive test for covid.  On September 21, Joan Jett cancelled her tour due to covid concerns.  On September 10, Bush cancelled their current tour "due to unfortunate and unavoidable covid-related circumstances."  Nine Inch Nails made a similar announcement back on August 19.  Other tours cancelled due to the covids include the Backstreet Boys, BTS, Kiss, Korn, Limp Bizkit, Rage Against the Machine, The 1975, The Deftones, the Pixies, Florida Georgia Line, Lynyrd Skynyrd, Aerosmith, Alan Parsons,  Roger Waters, Garth Brooks, Stevie Nicks, Taylor Swift, and Halsey.  

Cancelled festivals include the New Orleans Jazz Festival, Boston Calling, Movement Detroit, Cincinnati Music Fest, Coachella (California), Burning Man (Nevada), CMA (Nashville), Ultra Music Fest (Miami), Glastonbury (U.K.), Primavera Sound (Spain), Roskilde (Denmark), Tomorrowland (Belgium), Bluesfest (Autralia), and Bigsound (Australia).

But my neighbors went to see Hamilton at the Fox Theater last week and they're fine, why shouldn't I go see the Osees at Variety Playhouse?  

I strongly doubt the seated audience at Hamilton moshed and crowd surfed the way Osees audiences do, and besides, your neighbors are some 25  to 30 years younger than you.

I'm in pretty good health and haven't had so much as a cold for over a year now.  Surely, my vaccinated system, coupled with a face mask, can handle whatever the audience and the venue throws my way.

Don't kid yourself - you're 67, overweight, and out of shape.  Enough with the post-adolescent fantasies of immortality already.  The delta variant would eat you up for dinner given half a chance, kiddo.  

So the question I'm considering now, some 90 minutes before the Playhouse doors open, is do I go to the show vaxxed and masked to see one of my favorite bands, or do I wait for the number of new cases to drop further still before venturing back to the clubs and theaters?

The truth of the matter is, I bought the tickets back in July when case numbers, deaths, and hospitalizations were all low, thinking that the new vaccines were going to keep things that way.  I hadn't counted on the new delta variant spike.  I wouldn't consider going to the show tonight if case numbers had slowly climbed from their July level up to their current level.  

The only reason it looks "safe" now is because things were worse last month at the peak of the current spike.  The fact that things were more dangerous in the past doesn't necessarily make them safe now.  It's better for me to wait until conditions return to their June-July levels than to take my chances now.