Day 99

Looking at the new-case graph of coronavirus in Georgia, one of the striking features, in addition to the heart-breaking upward trend since mid-May, is the presence of multiple "spikes" in the data. Surely, some of this must be due to delayed reporting of cases - many of the spikes occur on Mondays following a weekend of under-reporting.

But there's more than just the sputtering bureaucracy of the health-care system that's causing the spikes.  And even if it were due to under-reporting over the weekend, on July 10 there were 4,904 new cases, 2,259 more than would be expected based on the 7-day average of 2,645 new cases. Since near-average numbers of cases were reported on the previous days, what caused the 2,259 excess cases?

The latest science shows that six days generally pass between exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms.  So what do you think happened six days before July 10, around about (lets see, 10 minus 6) July 4th?

I don't know about your state but here in Georgia, even though most official, municipal fireworks displays were cancelled, people all across the state, including here in Atlanta and even in my own neighborhood, held parties and get-togethers and put on their own amateur fireworks shows, all in the name of good, clean American patriotism.  Hell, I even had my daughter and her boyfriend come over for some dinner and beers. We didn't blow anything up, though.

I've heard people try to blame the increased number of cases on the Black Lives Matter protests, but those occurred largely in late May and early June.  There are some late May spikes in the data, but nothing of the magnitude of the July 10 spike.

I propose that if you hosted a July 4 social event in Georgia, you may have contributed to the 2,259 excess coronavirus cases in the state.  I like to think that I'm exempt, because neither my daughter, her boyfriend, or I reported a case following our July 4 get-together.  But who knows if, or who, we may have infected asymptomatically after the weeked?

The science also indicates that deaths from the coronavirus among the susceptible population generally occur about 14 days after the onset of symptoms.  Fourteen days after July 10 would be July 24, and on July 22, Georgia saw the second-highest number of covid-related deaths since the pandemic began.  

The depressing thing about science is it's just so damn right so much of the time.  We had a spike of 78 reported deaths in Georgia 18 days after the July 4th holiday, 45 more than would be expected. The obvious reason was the decrease in social distancing on the July 4th holiday, when the good people of Georgia decided to take a risk and blow off a little holiday steam instead of continuing the quarantine.

Forty-five people died as a consequence.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said today that we're likely to have an effective vaccine for this virus by November of this year, way ahead of the previously anticipated schedule.  It may even be available as early as October.  This is good news.  

Georgia, it seems, does not have the discipline or self-control to voluntarily distance ourselves socially, nor do we have the political will to mandate face masks much less a quarantine.  It appears that we've decided that 30 to 45 deaths a day, with the occasional spike of around 70 to 80 deaths a day, is acceptable until a vaccine arrives in October or November  

It appears to be the accepted price for pretending that everything's normal.