I wake up this morning. It's not raining (strange), so hooray for that. I check the forecast for the day on my phone and see the rain's about to start in an hour, and will last all week and maybe even until next Wednesday.
Do I hang myself now or wait for the cabin fever to get me first?
Of course, if I were to go outside, I'd have to worry not about cabin fever but coronavirus fever getting me. Four more cases of apparent, presumed covid-19 have been reported here in Georgia, bringing the total up to 11. And a busload of passengers from the infected Grand Princess cruise ship is heading this way, with at least 34 people from here in Georgia and now, it's been announced, more people from other states as well because why not?
Then, just when I think it couldn't get any worse, this news bomb drops:
An undisclosed teacher at an undisclosed Fulton County school has been confirmed with coronavirus, so the entire school system is now closing down tomorrow, at least for the day. Since it's almost impossible to keep school-age children home for long, soon they'll be out, on the streets, in the parks, and at the shopping centers, spreading the infection further.
The number of infected persons in Georgia is about to explode. I heard an epidemiologist on NPR explain that once you hear about the first fatality, that means there's at least 1,000 people already infected. With a 2 to 4% mortality rate, if one person dies that means that at the very least around 100 more people have the illness. And as it takes a couple of weeks to manifest and to cause a fatality, that means it's been out there multiplying for those weeks and the 100 cases could have increased to 800 to 1,000 cases. Fortunately, there haven't been any fatalities in Georgia yet, as far as I know, but I wouldn't be at all surprise if by the end of the week the number isn't up to 1,000 or more.
Several conventions and events have already been cancelled and several bands have cancelled their tours due to coronavirus concerns. Austin, Texas' massive South By Southwest music and technology festival has been cancelled, and petitions are circulating for and against closing Coachella down next month.
Today, the Big Ears festival in Knoxville, Tennessee released the following announcement:
We have received some inquiries about the potential impact of coronavirus, specifically COVID-19, on the Big Ears Festival, and we want to assure you that we are monitoring the situation closely.
With opening day for Big Ears still two and a half weeks from now, we are continuing with our preparation and planning to produce the festival as scheduled.
The safety of festival attendees is our top priority and we will make prudent and thoughtful decisions as the situation develops. We will, of course, follow the guidance of health professionals and public officials. We believe that all decisions related to producing the festival should be rooted in facts, not fear.
None of our festival attendees - according to our ticketing data - are traveling from countries where there are travel restrictions in place. We also know of no plans to cancel any of the public events scheduled throughout our region - theme park openings, arena concerts, sporting events of all kinds, and other concerts.
The standard industry policy is that tickets are not refundable unless an event is canceled. However, we recognize that this is an exceptional situation, and we do not want any one taking risks that would endanger their own health or that of others, so we will be discussing how we might modify this policy appropriately in the next few days.
We will of course be continuing to watch the situation as it develops and will certainly keep you informed of any significant changes that may occur. We appreciate your patience and understanding - and we wish everyone the very best in these difficult times.
I'm not reassured by the tone of this message. The promoters obviously have a lot of money tied up in the event, and may not recover much of their investment from insurance if they decide to cancel the event themselves. They need to have the event ordered closed by the authorities - it was the Mayor of Austin who ordered SXSW shut down.
But the Big Ears promoters are trying to reassure us that as far as they know, no attendees will be coming from countries that currently have travel restrictions in place. But that list of countries is growing, and besides, there's no way the promoters could know where every attendee has traveled to in the past month - maybe a ticket holder from NYC was at a fashion show in Milan last month. They also seem to be content with leading from the rear - we won't shut the festival down until every theme park (cough, Dollywood, cough), arena show and "other concerts," and sporting events "of all kinds" have cancelled first.
I do hope the show goes on and I will attend if it does, but I hope they make their mind up soon, as it's difficult to get a refund from a hotel with less than a week's notice of cancellation, and I've got a lot of money reserved for my stay in Knoxville.
On a happier note, while looking for info about Big Ears' status on their web site today, I just noticed that Jaimie Branch, whom I recently called "an exciting new voice in modern jazz," will be playing this year (if the show does indeed go on). I said that it's literally been decades since I've been this excited about a new voice in jazz music, and if it means that I have to go brave a global pandemic in order to hear her perform, then this pic will be me at this year's Big Ears festival:
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