A landmark study released today reveals that approximately 60 percent of the ecosystems that support life on Earth – such as fresh water, fisheries, grasslands, forests, farmlands, rivers and lakes – are being degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years.

"Any progress achieved in addressing the goals of poverty and hunger eradication, improved health, and environmental protection is unlikely to be sustained if most of the ecosystem services on which humanity relies continue to be degraded," said the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Synthesis Report, conducted by 1,300 experts from 95 countries. It specifically states that the ongoing degradation of ecosystems is a road block to the goals agreed to by world leaders at the United Nations in 2000.

Although evidence remains incomplete, there is enough for the experts to warn that the ongoing degradation of 15 of the 24 ecosystems examined is increasing the likelihood of potentially abrupt changes that will seriously affect human well-being. This includes the emergence of new diseases, sudden changes in water quality, creation of "dead zones" along the coasts, the collapse of fisheries, and shifts in regional climate.

The report highlights four main findings:

• Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively in the last 50 years than in any other period. This was done largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel. More land was converted to agriculture since 1945 than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined. More than half of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, first made in 1913, ever used on the planet has been used since 1985. Experts say that this resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in diversity of life on Earth, with some 10 to 30 percent of the mammal, bird and amphibian species currently threatened with extinction.

• Activities that have contributed substantial net gains to human well-being and economic development have been achieved at the costs of degradation of other resources. In the last 50 years, only crop, livestock and aquaculture production, and carbon regulation for global climate control, have been enhanced. Fisheries and fresh water resources are now being exploited well beyond levels that can sustain current, much less future, demands. Experts say that these problems will substantially diminish the resources available for future generations.

• The degradation of ecosystems could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century. In all plausible future scenarios considered by the scientists, progress in eliminating hunger was projected, but at far slower rates than needed to halve number of people suffering from hunger by 2015.

• The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands can be met under some scenarios involving significant policy and institutional changes. However, these changes will be large and are not currently under way. The report mentions options that exist to conserve or enhance ecosystem services that reduce negative trade-offs or that will positively impact other services.

For example, deforestation influences the abundance of human pathogens such as malaria and cholera, as well as the risk of emergence of new diseases. Malaria, for example, accounts for 11 percent of the disease burden in Africa and, had it been eliminated 35 years ago, the continent’s gross domestic product would have increased by $100 billion. Protection of natural forests not only conserves wildlife but also supplies fresh water and reduces carbon emissions.

It is the world’s poorest people who suffer most from ecosystem changes. The regions facing significant problems of ecosystem degradation – sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, some regions in Latin America, and parts of South and Southeast Asia – are also facing the greatest challenges. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the number of poor people is forecast to rise from 315 million in 1999 to 404 million by 2015.

The over-riding conclusion of this assessment is that it lies within the power of human societies to ease the strains we are putting on the planet, while continuing to bring better living standards to all. Achieving this, however, will require radical changes in the way nature is treated at every level of decision-making and new ways of cooperation between government, business and civil society.

The warning signs are there for all of us to see. The future now lies in our hands.